Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Israel
  • Iraq
  • Oman
  • Georgia
  • Jordan
  • Kuwait
  • Bahrain
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • China
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Tajikistan
  • India

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $815,117$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,631,381.3}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 288.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,631,381.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43,417$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{78,294.5}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 265.9)}}\) (asimptote \(78,294.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $187,996$ on 2020-11-19

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $327,049$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{391,541.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 202.8)}}\) (asimptote \(391,541.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,742$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,363.6}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 249.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,363.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,377$ on 2020-11-19

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $529,226$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{578,329.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 190.6)}}\) (asimptote \(578,329.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,834$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,683.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 162.9)}}\) (asimptote \(11,683.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,902$ on 2020-11-19

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $121,360$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109,935.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 138.4)}}\) (asimptote \(109,935.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,365$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,507.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 162.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,507.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,589$ on 2020-11-19

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $93,092$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $853$ on 2020-11-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,362$ on 2020-11-19

Jordan⮸

Population $10,203,134$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $169,395$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,053$ on 2020-11-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $67,062$ on 2020-11-19

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $138,822$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{140,715.5}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 165.4)}}\) (asimptote \(140,715.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $859$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{834.6}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 115.9)}}\) (asimptote \(834.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,537$ on 2020-11-19

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $85,317$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,608.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 170.1)}}\) (asimptote \(91,608.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $337$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{369.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 163.0)}}\) (asimptote \(369.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,736$ on 2020-11-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Saudi Arabia recovered 89%
Bahrain recovered 75%
Tajikistan recovered 72%
India recovered 56%
Kuwait recovered 52%
Nepal recovered 40%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $91,935$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,516.8}{1 + 10^{-0.080 (t - 15.7)}}\) (asimptote \(86,516.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,742$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,707.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 32.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,707.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $466$ on 2020-11-19

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $354,527$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{342,499.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 107.2)}}\) (asimptote \(342,499.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,729$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,664.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 127.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,664.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,842$ on 2020-11-19

Tajikistan⮸

Population $9,537,645$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,772$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,097.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 65.1)}}\) (asimptote \(11,097.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $86$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86.0}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(86.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $538$ on 2020-11-19

India⮸

Population $1,380,004,385$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,004,365$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,682,251.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 166.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,682,251.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-07 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $132,162$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{144,809.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 152.4)}}\) (asimptote \(144,809.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $443,794$ on 2020-11-19